海南,再造一个香港

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90年代，是属于香港炒房客的黄金年代。

“照卖照卖楼花处处有单位，但是旺角可能要换换名字。”——罗大佑《皇后大道东》

楼花，香港地产商一项伟大的发明——只要缴纳最低10%的订金，就可以锁定一套房。在炒楼最疯狂的年代，人们为了抢新开盘的楼花彻夜排队，打得头破血流。
但只要抢到了，倒手一卖就是200%、400%的暴利。

那个年代，香港的房价就像大英帝国的国旗，永远看不到落日。
“1997年在香港，不买房一定是傻子。”地产商津津乐道：回归后大陆会接盘香港房地产市场，给省级干部在香港统一置办住房。
香港炒烫手了，商人们意犹未尽。他们把目光投向了当时中国最大的经济特区——海南岛。
在炒房客带动下，海南的房价一度突破7500元每平，而当地的普通职工月薪不过一两百元。那是海南最接近香港的一次：一样的楼花，一样的狂热，是冒险者的天堂岛，也是韭菜的万人坑。
1993年，海南的炒楼热被中央终止了。经济崩盘，烂尾楼遍地。
海南经济不景气一直延续到现在。说出来你可能不信，现在海南全省的GDP折算成一个市，挤不进内地城市前40。





但是就在这周，这个相当于内地三线城市的海南岛，被命运的大手垂青了。
整个海南岛都被划为独立的关税区，进口不加税；注册公司无需审批……一切都让人想起香港。
社会主义的自贸港，是海南——资本主义的自贸港，是香港。



海南这个后浪，香港这个前浪，站到了同一个擂台上。

为什么不是经济中心上海？为什么不是离香港最近的深圳？为什么不是没落多年的天津？为什么不是大连、厦门、珠海……

偏偏，是那个实力最弱小的海南？

1

很多人一说到特区，就想起深圳。但其实，海南也是特区，而且是所有特区里地理面积最大的。
1988年4月，海南全岛被划为经济特区。
海南从一开始，就是冲着建设自由港去的。但是三十年下来，海南只积累了丰富的失败经验。长江商学院教授刘劲这样委婉地表示：

海南省可能是中国改革开放以来被国家授予最多名头但发展效益最少的地方。

海南刚开放时，处境很尴尬。想做制造业，香港的加工厂已经交给了深圳，海南吃不上肉；做航运贸易呢，地理位置又不占优势；至于更赚钱的金融业，就更不可能了。
香港还有什么能让海南学？只剩下房地产了。


短短一年中，海口市的经济增长达到了83%，但代价是房价狂飙猛进。土地拍卖价格翻了近十倍；商品房价格，五年内一路从1000多元每平狂飙到了5000多每平——一平米相当于普通职工的五十倍月薪，即便是今天的北上广深夜望尘莫及。

“要挣钱，到海南；要发财，炒楼花。”海南房地产最疯狂的时候，两万多家房地产公司打得头破血流。这里平均每三百人就有一家房地产公司，比公共厕所还多。
后来中国最大的房地产公司万科，就是在海南掘到的第一桶金子。冯仑、潘石屹那六个年轻人，平均年龄才24岁，创业资本只有三万块，但是他们倒手买卖了农田里的几栋小别墅，利润不下百万。

和大佬们交情不浅的冯小刚，在自己电影里忠实记录下了一笔：陈灿在海南炒房地产发了大财，忙得连老婆孩子都见不到一面；而身患残疾的战斗英雄刘峰在海南蹬三轮送书，一个月只能挣三百块钱，被联防扣下的三轮车相当于他三个月的收入。


图：电影《芳华》
如果任由他们这么搞下去，房产泡沫只会越来越大。

1993年6月，中央出手整治海南乱象。一看吓一跳，烂尾项目超过了1600万平方米，闲置土地18834公顷，积压资金800亿元，国有四大行积累了300亿的坏账。
中央专门拨款5亿拯救烂尾楼，但是海南消化这场房灾，用了将近二十年。

房产不行，还是搞旅游吧。
2008年，海南正式提出建立国际旅游岛。但是实践中又暴露出来一个问题：因为气候炎热，海南一年中有三分之一的时间不适宜居住，酒店入住率只有60%。相比全年可度假的夏威夷，海南的旅游项目投资更困难。
但这并不妨碍有些人利用海南炒房。



2007年，雅居乐地产在海南拿到了226元每平米的廉价土地，四年后的房地产清水湾售价却超过了2万元每平。清水湾开盘至今十年，卖了近千亿，成了雅居乐最大的摇钱树。
雅居乐的一位售楼小姐，一年卖出了13亿，提成两百万。而根据《每日经济新闻》报道，“依靠卖房提成和加入炒楼花，海南年入几百万元的售楼小姐并不在少数。”。



资本在海南跑马圈地，这只是冰山一角。
和海航、中信、鲁能等等大地产商比起来，雅居乐只是囤地数量连前五都排不进的玩家。2013年，克而瑞公布的报告显示，海南的房产供应量已经超过了一亿平方米，要十年才能消化得完。
房地产给海南带来的问题，是致命的。

海南成了房价比肩北上广深的存在，旅游成本也水涨船高。“穷人去东南亚，有钱人才去海南”已经成了海南的硬伤。年轻人但凡在互联网查查攻略比比价，就会把海南从度假名单中划掉。
现在海南，遍地是“老年旅游团”“东北看房团”。“国际旅游岛”的目标，吸引不了国际游客，吸引不了年轻游客，在资本的裹挟下越来越远。


图：老人团在海南

2

2020年，海南迎来了第三次政策红利——自贸港。
这一次，和之前完全不一样。
今年3月，还在自贸港政策还没有正式宣布前，海南突然取消了楼花制度，一系列重拳猛打房价。
楼花发源于香港，海南先试水，内地才随后引进。海南当年第一个炒楼花，现在第一个放弃楼花，让人看得一头雾水。
注意，这个时间点非常诡异。疫情刚刚有好转，各地政府都在试探中央态度，想要刺激房地产市场，让本地经济尽快复苏，唯独海南坚决放弃了炒房——可是海南的支柱就是房地产，不炒房拿什么搞经济呢？

只有一个解释：自贸港。



果不其然，6月1号，自贸港建设方案官宣了。

我先帮大家解读一下，海南自贸港到底是一个多牛X的存在。

第一，整个海南岛划为独立的关税区，进口完全不征收任何关税。也就是说，任何国家都可以把他们最牛逼或最廉价的产品倾销到海南，比如十多块钱一斤的阿根廷牛肉，比如二三十万的外国豪车，比如海外购的化妆品。这些东西在内地被征收保护性关税，防止冲击中国市场，但是现在在海南，关税变成了零。
零关税对消费者来说，意味着消费天堂。你可以随便吃随便玩，而且可以带十万人民币以内的免税商品回内地。

从关税层面来看，海南和其他省份已经不像一个国家了。这种开放力度，找遍全世界也只有香港新加坡等寥寥几个城市可以相比，但是海南面积是香港30倍，是新加坡48倍。如果说香港是国际资本的游戏厅，那海南简直是一个迪士尼乐园了。



第二，海南向内地运商品，算作出口要征税，但只要在海南加工增值了30%，就免征关税。

这一点主要是为了鼓励海南的本土制造业。海南一直被房地产绑架，就是因为正经的制造业一直做不起来。这条政策就是国家向海南让利，比如一桶原件100元的原油，运到海南炼成130元以上的汽油柴油，就能免去海南到内地的税收。
各种加工厂老板一看，海南制造能够省不少钱啊，他们就开始考虑搬厂到海南生产。国家虽然少收税了，但是130元里有30元留在了海南，海南人工作也有了，整个经济就走上了良性循环。



其他的利好消息还有很多，比如对鼓励类产业，按15%征收企业所得税，对高端人才，个税税负超过15%的部分予以免征；比如在海南经营企业基本取消限制，只要不分裂国家和意识形态，不搞黄赌毒，什么都好说；比如在海南金融开放，发展结算中心……
总的来说，把海南的名字盖住，你会以为这里是香港。

海南的重要性相当高，和“一带一路”、京津冀一体化、粤港澳大湾区等并列为国家区域经济方面的七大重大国家战略。
正是因为自贸港这事关系太重要，海南才会在率先取消全国历史最悠久的楼花制度。自贸港建设方案里提了很多产业，但唯独对房地产只提了一句，轻描淡写“支持住房租赁金融业务创新和规范发展，支持发展房地产投资信托基金（REITs）”
房地产困住了海南过去三十年，是时候和它说再见了。
等待着海南的，将是一个全新的任务：成为一个社会主义的自贸港。

3

其实，资本市场对海南并不看好。
海南自贸港和地摊经济几乎是同时提出，但是地摊概念股迅速起飞，把海南概念股晾在一边。



如果你去问香港金融业人士，他们多半会告诉你：香港对于国际资本有天然的优势，海南做不到。

这种优势，说穿了就是百年殖民历史。
香港，中国的领土，西方的乐土。洋人和洋行在香港进退自如：进，可以向14亿人的广阔市场里掘金；退，可以撤资跑路脚底抹油。
最重要的是退路——香港政府不限制资金流动，外国资本拿着港币可以轻松转账到全世界，而内地政府对资本管理是非常严格的，比如某王姓首富以为自己赚的钱想投资到美国就到美国，随后就遭到了社会主义铁拳的制裁。



我们当然希望更多的资本留在中国，帮助中国建设，如果有人割了韭菜就想跑，统统拦住不许走，但是资本看了王首富的下场，吓得不敢来中国了怎么办？

这就需要刚柔并济的智慧，需要香港来做缓冲带。所有洋人都知道，香港保持现有制度五十年不动摇，只要把钱存进香港银行，就能逃避社会主义铁拳的制裁。
中国改革开放的初期启动，就是外资带来的。80年代中国引进外资的75%都来自香港，即便是现在，这个数字也在65%左右。

香港的GDP已经比不过上海深圳了，但即便香港GDP再低，只要它还是中国唯一的自贸港，它的地位就超然于所有城市之外。



所以，中国和西方在香港自由港的态度上，保持了微妙的默契。

即便在去年香港最紧张的时刻，香港警察被暴徒们围攻得遍体鳞伤，深圳的武警部队就在海对岸杀声震天地演习，解放军依然保持了高度克制，没有对香港暴徒们出手。

某些人可能更希望看到解放军出手。因为一旦内地干涉香港事务，自由港的招牌就砸了，中国也许将失去这个联系外资的窗口，外资外逃，汇率振荡，引发山崩海啸式的连锁反应。
这招叫做杀人诛心。



看上去，开放海南是一笔不划算的生意：拿什么和香港争呢？
但是去年发生的事情，已经给我们上了一课：
某些国家，一想找中国不痛快就来香港闹事。你要是不抓暴徒，任由他们打砸抢伤，香港就是“不安全”的自由港；你要是抓了暴徒，香港又变成了“不自由”的自由港。
一个被外国势力把持的香港，一个被偏爱得有恃无恐的香港，并不符合我们的国家利益。



香港可以是自由港，但不能是唯一的自由港。

无论是为了中国大局，还是为了香港的小局，我们一定要有“第二个香港”。

选在哪里呢？看似选择很多，其实可选余地并不多。
自贸港必须和大陆相对独立，既让外资安心，又防止走私。所以，它最好是个岛或者半岛。
自贸港的尝试前所未有，它会面临全世界货物的倾销和全世界资本的挑战。一个经济弱小的地区，可以及时止损，比上海深圳这些发达大城市更适合试水改革（就像当年的小渔村深圳）。



海南，临危受命。
延续三十年的楼花制度取消之后，省委书记在镜头前表态不搞房地产……现在的海南，除了搞好自贸港，已经没有后路了。
你可以说海南地理位置偏僻，可以说海南没有像样的产业，可以说海南历次改革屡战屡败，但是不能否认海南的决心。

海南也许永远没有香港那样的条件，也许永远都比不上香港发达，但是我们国家需要第二个自贸港，海南再不行，也得行。
海南自贸港，就像华为海思那批芯片“备胎”一样，注定将面临长时间的打磨，修炼内功。
默默无闻时，它的付出无人知晓；一夜功成时，它的光彩将照耀14亿人。

尾声

这篇对于海南自贸港的解读，也许让你失望了。

目前来说，摆在海南面前的问题有很多，钱途却不太明显。这个时候无脑劝人到海南掘金，是不太负责的。
前些阵子有一条新闻，海南政府号召全省上下公务员学英语。有的评论冷嘲热讽，但我却看到了一个政府想要推动改革的决心。
如果一个老外想要在海南投资建厂，却发现基层人员对他爱答不理，连基本的英语都不会，他对海南的印象该有多糟糕？

想要变成属于世界的自贸港，就要从对自己改革动刀子做起。



我来自浙江，也曾经是个七山二水一分田的穷地方。但是浙江政府工作人员是我见过服务意识最强的，他们会关心你有没有一次办完所有事情，会主动在网上推动电子政务服务，会拆掉西湖的所有栏杆和全世界共享。

曾经有一个浙江的普通县委书记，他跑到地摊上和小贩套近乎，帮他们办市场，帮他们和上级提要求。最终这个县做到了全国闻名，小商品打遍全世界。

这个县委书记叫谢高华，这个县叫义乌。



如今我的老家嘉兴，一个三线小城市，GDP仅仅是浙江的第五名，却也超过海南全省总量。

我想对海南说，穷不可怕，但穷的时候要思变，要敢对自己动刀子。

自贸港将是海南最大的机遇，也是最大的挑战。

海南的目标，绝不是超过嘉兴，你们的目标，是香港啊！

是成为下一个香港，还是成为三十年前的海南，胜负的剧本，在你们自己手里。

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Metadata plays a underlying function in the universe of academic writing and enquiry dispersion. It is alike the textile that weaves together assorted pieces of scholarly information, allowing readers and researchers to pilot through Brobdingnagian bodies of study with relief. This surgical incision wish nosedive into how effectual usage of metadata give notice raise the sensing and accomplish of a publication. Without it, valuable insights could disappear into abstruseness.
First base and foremost, right structured metadata is determinant for proper classification. The organisation non solely aids in networking among scholars simply also enhances discoverability through and through look engines. When researchers or students reckon for specific topics, relevant metadata acts as a directional light, ensuring they see requirement literature quick. Consider; keyword survival greatly influences how articles are indexed and retrieved.
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- Accurate style verbal description.
- Formed keywords and phrases.
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Therefore, when a researcher incorporates relevant and precise details into metadata fields, it importantly improves the publication’s risk of organism observed by the aright hearing. Furthermore, including structured information increases the likelihood of being featured in salient world databases, impulsive greater profile and citations.
Primal Benefits of Comprehensive Metadata
Lashkar-e-Toiba us research the discrete advantages that rise from meticulous metadata usage:
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